We have had four quarterfinals where three teams from the sub-continent won their respective matches. Two of the quarters were absolutely one-sided with Pakistan beating the hell out of the West Indies by 10 wickets and Sri Lanka beating England with the same margin. The India-Australia game lived up to the expectation and was an absolute humdinger. On the other hand New Zealand upset the favorites South Africa to setup the semis.
1st S/F: An all-round New Zealand stand in the way of the favorites Sri Lanka.
Nobody would really fancy the Kiwis beating the Lankans at home. Sri Lanka at this World Cup has held the flag of ‘favorites’ with high esteem. Their openers have been extremely consistent and Sangakkara and Jayawardene have shown their strengths when they got in. That strength though might be a key to their downfall. Because of the top order doing well, their out-of-form middle order hasn’t got an opportunity which was exposed in the only match they lost against Pakistan. Make no mistake, but under pressure of a semi-final at home, if the Kiwis manage to bump the Sri Lankan top order, their lower middle order will be tested. Sri Lanka on the other hand has an extremely strong bowling attack. Their spinners are ably supported by the slinging Malinga and a very talented Angelo Matthews. They gave England a hard day and will be expected to do the same against New Zealand.
Kiwis on the other hand were not much fancied against the South Africans in the quarter-final and will be even less fancied against the Lankans. South Africa tried to go against their own strengths by fielding too many spinners instead of their good all-rounders. A brilliant and fighting Jacob Oram showed them the door. New Zealand does have a lack of talent and they over depend on a handful of players to win. But those key players have the ability to turn the match on.
If Sri Lanka bat first, a score about 230 would be very difficult for the Kiwis to chase. On the other hand if the Kiwis score more than 260 batting first, Sri Lanka could be on the mat. I feel the game would not be as one-sided as it is expected to be.
2nd S/F: The India-Pakistan semifinal at its biggest stage.
India and Pakistan have never played each other at such a stage ever before. A group phase matchup in 1992, World Cup QF in 1996, a super six encounter in 1999 and a League match in 2003. So a semifinal brings with the aura of the occasion to add to the already tense game.
Pakistan’s strength undoubtedly is their bowling. Only New Zealand was able to trump their bowling courtesy some horrendous catching and fielding which is their folly. Pakistan’s batting woes are highlighted by the fact that they don’t have anybody in the top 20 scores of this world cup. But on the other hand, they are still there, which means someone is due to score big. Umar Akmal and the openers are the key for them. Misbah and Younis are there to steady them in the middle overs. And with Umar Gul, Afridi can contribute to defend a decent total.
India has over depended on their batting. As I have said before, one day their bowling could come to haunt them. Zaheer cannot afford to have a bad day and Harbhajan and Yuvraj need to support him well. But it’s the batting that has saved them, and will be at the task yet again. Opening partnership is as crucial as ever and Gambhir’s emotional involvement for an Indo-Pak game could be vital for his performance that needs a raise urgently. A great match in prospect which has been unnecessarily hyped up beyond proportion.
If India bats first, they must ensure that they score above 280 to win whereas Pak needs to stop them below 250. If Pak bats first it’s tougher for them because realistically even 280 is achievable for the strong Indian batting.
Can’t wait for the games to begin.
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